Business

In April, Indian stock markets witnessed an inflow of Rs 11,630 crore from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) due to the fair valuation of shares and the robust performance of the Indian rupee.

This followed a net investment of Rs 7,936 crore in equities by FPIs in March, primarily attributed to significant investments made by US-based GQG Partners in Adani group companies. However, when adjusting for GQG’s investment in the Adani Group, the net inflow was negative.

The future projections for FPI inflows indicate a volatile trend due to the US Federal Reserve’s stringent monetary policy. As the US Fed minutes indicated, an interest rate trek of 25 basis points in the next policy meeting could hurt FPI investments. , said Sonam Srivastava, founder of (IAFWR) investment advisory firm Wright Research.

Nevertheless, he stated that the stability of the Indian economy and its attractive valuations compared to other emerging markets could potentially continue to lure FPIs toward investing in Indian equities.

In 2023, FPIs have withdrawn Rs 14,580 crore from Indian equities while investing Rs 4,268 crore in the debt market during the same duration.

During the initial two weeks of April, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) exhibited robust purchasing behavior, signaling a revitalized positive sentiment toward the Indian stock market. Nevertheless, this optimism was subdued in the third week of the month owing to apprehensions surrounding elevated interest rates in the United States and feeble economic indicators.

According to Anand Dalmia, the co-founder and CBO of Fisdom, they resumed their aggressive buying strategy in the final days of April. Furthermore, Dalmia expressed confidence that foreign capital inflows will persist in the long run.

Srivastava said key factors for the month ahead include stabilization of the global scenario, easing fears about the banking situation in the US and Europe, fair valuation of Indian stocks after consolidation and India’s ability to generate healthy returns in the medium term. . and longer duration. Long-term horizon.

Additionally, another crucial macroeconomic factor that has influenced the FPI perspective is the performance of the Indian rupee. VK Vijayakumar, the Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, noted that the domestic currency, which had touched a nadir of 82.94 against the US dollar in February 2021, has since appreciated to 81.75.

Furthermore, India’s current account deficit is gradually shrinking, and if this trend persists, it could bolster the rupee even further. VK Vijayakumar suggested that this could attract more inflows from FPIs into India.

In addition to equities, FPIs have allocated Rs 805 crore towards the debt market during the period mentioned above.

Divam Sharma, Founder of Green PMS Portfolio, said, “As soon as the rate hike stops, money will start shifting from debt to equity to beat inflation.

With this, FPIs have pulled out Rs 14,580 crore from equities in 2023 and invested Rs 4,268 crore in debt markets during this period.

Fisdom’s Dalmia said mid-April data on FPI inflows showed that finance, auto components and information technology sectors were particularly attractive to foreign investors.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have invested a total of Rs. 37,631 crore Indian shares during FY 2022-23. The exit is attributed to aggressive rate hikes by central banks worldwide. In the last financial year, FPI earned a record Rs 200 crore. 1.4 lakh crore from the Indian stock market.

However, before exiting in FY 2020-21, FPIs raised a record Rs. 2.7 lakh crore in Indian stocks. In 2019-20, FPIs invested Rs. 6,152 crore in Indian stocks.

The current trend of FPI outflows from Indian stocks is worrying as they play an important role in providing liquidity and depth to the Indian stock market. It is worth noting that these outflows have come despite India’s relatively strong economic fundamentals and the government’s efforts to implement structural reforms to spur economic growth.

Market analysts suggest that the outflow of FPIs can be attributed to concerns about rising inflation and rates along with the prevailing risk-averse sentiment among investors globally.

Scarlet Samson

Markets are likely to open flat or marginally lower as SGX Nifty on Tuesday indicated a marginally negative opening for the broader indices with a loss of 37 points after settling the session near the day’s highs.

In the previous session, the BSE Sensex closed 74 points higher at 60,130, while the Nifty 50 closed 25 points higher at 17,769.

The pivot chart indicates that the Nifty may find support at 17,730, followed by 17,708 and 17,674. If the index moves further, 17,799 is the initial key resistance level to watch, followed by 17,820 and 17,855.

The SGX Nifty closed 37 points lower at 17,769 after the Nifty rose 25 points on Tuesday, indicating a marginally negative opening for the broader indices. SGX futures stood at 17,748.

US Markets

On Tuesday evening, US stock futures increased as Big Tech companies, including Alphabet and Microsoft, reported their earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 47 points or 0.1 percent, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.4 percent, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 1.2 percent.

The Dow fell nearly 344 points or 1 percent in regular trading Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed 1.6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 2 percent.

European Markets

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index ended the day down 0.4 percent, with most sectors in the red. Mining shares fell 2.9 percent and banking shares 2 percent, while construction shares fell 1.1 percent. The FTSE closed at 7891, down 0.27 percent. The DAX closed at 15872 points, down 0.05 percent.

Asian markets

The S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.35 percent. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was down 0.33 percent, and Topix was down 0.62 percent.

South Korea’s Kospi bucked the broader slump and rose 0.19 percent, while the KOSDAQ was up 0.44 percent, as the country’s consumer sentiment index for April rose to 95.1 from 92 in March.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index looks set to extend its losses from Tuesday, with tied futures at 19,391 compared to its last close of 19,617.88.

Brokers are now prohibited by Sebi from pledging their clients’ funds as bank guarantees.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has barred the use of clients’ funds to create bank guarantees to augment the working capital requirements of stockbrokers.

Currently, stockbrokers and clearing members pledge their clients’ funds with banks through bank guarantees (BGs), which allows them to pledge higher amounts to clearing corporations. However, this practice of implicit leverage poses market risks, especially for the client’s funds.

Dalmia Bharat’s Q4 NP increases two-fold to Rs 609 crore.

Dalmia Bharat Ltd, a cement maker, announced on Tuesday that its consolidated net profit for the fourth quarter of 2022-23 has doubled to Rs 609 crore. In the same period last year, the company had posted a net profit of Rs 271 crore, according to a regulatory filing by Dalmia India.

Furthermore, the company’s revenue from operations increased by 15.73 percent to Rs 3,912 crore during the quarter under review, compared to Rs 3,380 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

Oil prices

Oil prices declined by 2 percent following two days of gains due to growing worries of an economic slowdown and a stronger dollar, which offset expectations of increased Chinese demand and reduced US crude stocks.

Brent crude settled at $80.77 per barrel, falling by $1.96 or 2.4 percent. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $1.69 or 2.2 percent to $77.07. The previous day, both contracts had seen a gain of over 1 percent.

Gold

Gold prices increased as Treasury yields were impacted by a robust dollar, while investors anticipated US economic data later in the week that may confirm the impact of the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest-rate hikes.

The stronger dollar applied pressure on Treasury yields, resulting in a rise in gold prices. Investors remained cautious as they awaited US economic data, which could provide clarity on the Fed’s interest-rate-hike approach.

Spot gold rose 0.35 percent to $1,996.12 an ounce, while US gold futures rose 0.34 percent to $2,006.60.

Scarlet Samson

On 21 April, ITC continued its uptrend for the third day in a row, breaching the 5.04 trillion intraday market capitalization mark and briefly outperforming HDFC Ltd in terms of value.

At 11:30 am ET, ITC and HDFC tied at a market capitalization of Rs 5.03 lakh crore. ITC’s stock was trading 1.15 percent higher at Rs 404.90 on the NSE, reflecting positive sentiment among investors about the company’s growth prospects. The fierce competition between ITC and HDFC in terms of market capitalization reflects the strong performance of both companies and their position as major players in the Indian market.

ITC, an Indian conglomerate with interests in tobacco, FMCG, hospitality and cartons, has recently made a mark in the business world. On 20 April, the company’s market capitalization crossed the Rs 5 trillion mark, making it the 11th Indian company to achieve the feat. The achievement is mainly driven by the company’s strong performance in the stock market, with its shares rising 21 percent since the beginning of the year.

Several Indian companies have achieved the milestone of crossing 5 trillion market capitalization, indicating their strong performance and growth potential. Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Life Insurance Corp of India, State Bank of India, HDFC and Bharti Airtel are among the companies that have achieved this feat.

These companies are leaders in their respective industries and have established themselves as key players in the global market. Their success can attribute to their ability to adapt to changing market conditions, focus on innovation and commit to long-term growth.

ITC, one of India’s leading conglomerates, has been witnessing a significant increase in its market capitalization recently, which is helping it bridge the gap with Infosys, India’s second-largest IT services company. As of now, Infosys has a market capitalization of Rs 5.07 trillion, which is slightly higher than that of ITC.

ITC’s remarkable performance in the stock market, with a rally of 110% in the last two years, can be attributed to the consistent financial performance of its cigarette, consumer goods and hotel businesses. Notably, its cigarette business showed exceptional volume growth of 14.5% year-on-year in FY22, with analysts estimating an additional growth of 18% in FY23.

ITC’s FMCG segment has also contributed significantly to the company’s overall growth, with its range of products gaining popularity among Indian consumers. The company’s focus on sustainability and green practices has helped it garner a loyal customer base, enabling it to meet the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

ITC’s hotel business has also shown steady growth with a focus on premium and luxury hospitality offerings. The company has leveraged its experience in the hospitality sector to expand its operations across various locations in India and establish itself as a major player in the industry.

Ravi Singh, Head of Research, Share India, highlighted the positive trend of ITC technical setup on the daily chart, which indicates that investors can consider holding to reach the 420 level. Singh also noted that the stability of cigarette taxes, combined with constraints from law enforcement agencies, is allowing for continued improvement in volumes and is supporting the company’s growth prospects.

According to GCL Broking, ITC shares have the potential to reach Rs 470 in the next year, which is an upside estimate for the company. The firm also notes that ITC has outperformed Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) significantly, with 52 percent returns compared to HUL’s 19 percent returns over the past year.

GCL Broking’s forecast also highlights the importance of a well-diversified portfolio and a focus on long-term growth for continued success in the stock market. As investors increasingly prioritize companies that demonstrate a commitment to sustainability and ethical business practices, companies such as ITC that prioritize these values are likely to experience continued growth and success in the future.

Market expectations suggest that ITC’s revenue for Q4 FY23 will grow by 9.3% yoy to Rs 16,972 crore, with net profit up 17% yoy to Rs 4,907 crore. These projections indicate continued growth and success for the company based on the company’s strong financial performance in recent years.

Scarlet Samson

The Dogecoin price is up 45% since March 10 and 29.67% since its debut on January 1. The leading meme coin has posted gains of over 11.4% in the last three months and 53% in the last six months. Numerous causes contributed to DOGE’s excellent growth, but Elon Musk’s recent choice to switch the Twitter logo for the Dogecoin symbol was a major component in the most recent increases.

Therefore, Dogecoin is expect to go wild in the short term, thanks to the launch of Musk’s SpaceX Starship, which is schedule for April 20. The event, aptly named 4/20 or “Day of the Doge,” will see the unveiling of the world’s first, most powerful and fully reusable space rocket designed to carry cargo and people into space.

Analysts expect a rise in the Dogecoin price after the launch of Starship, as the meme coin could be display, as happened during the Texas Gigafactory launch event when a drone-made Doge mascot appeared in the sky.

Dogecoin Price Set for a Starship Explosion

Analysts anticipate that DOGE will experience an increase in purchasing momentum, which might spark a significant surge. Dogecoin is now resisting upward pressure from the psychological milestone of $0.095, trading at $0.0909.

A rise above this level will propel the price higher to face resistance from the key resistance at $0.0960. The next barrier would rise from the psychological $0.1 level after a decisive breakout above the resistance at this roadblock.

Such a move would clear the way for a move toward the December 5 high at $0.1118. This would represent a 24% increase over current levels.

DOGE/USD Daily Chart

In addition to SpaceX’s Starship launch, technical setup and on-chain metrics supported the positive outlook for Dogecoin. Note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators were trading within the positive zone. The price strength at 58 suggested that there were still more buyers than sellers in the market focused on pushing DOGE higher.

Note that Mem Coin was trading above the key simple moving averages (SMAs) that were trending up. The SMA also provided strong support for the price to move lower. These were the areas at $0.0824, a key area of buyer congestion dwarfed by the 200 and 100-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA, located at $0.0792, offered another safe haven below this price where the bulls might pause and make plans for yet another rally effort.

Additionally, on-chain analytics for the entire block revealed that Shiba Inu’s competitors had comparatively solid downside support. His In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model demonstrated that the upward path was the one with the least amount of resistance.

The 100 and 200-day SMAs’ support near the $0.0824 level was bolstered by the IOMAP chart below. The price range between $0.0819 and $0.0846 is where around 163,840 addresses previously purchased 6.71 billion DOGE.

Any attempt to push the price below this area will be meet with excessive buying by this group of investors, who are looking for a rise in price to maximize their profits.

Dogecoin map chart

According to the IOMAP model, the majority of DOGE holders, representing 73.82% of them, are currently making profits. However, this may challenge the bullish thesis for altcoins, as profit-taking is possible. If holders start selling their profits, this selling pressure could cause the price of DOGE to drop.

If the $0.09 support level lost, it could trigger a further decline in DOGE price, possibly a retest of the key support level of $0.0824 or the March 10 low, which is around $0.0626. This could be an important test for the stability of Meme Coin, as a loss of support could signal a change in sentiment towards the asset.

Scarlet Samson

The next fourth quarter positive in the IT sector is HCL Tech, which will present its financial earnings on April 20. HCL’s counterparty, TCS and Infosys, have already announced their fourth-quarter results, and both have largely yet to make estimates, warning investors about the sector ahead. Will HCL Tech encounter the exact fate as its peers?

It’s something everyone wonders about! Experts expect HCL to meet its fiscal 2023 revenue and margin guidance. Q4FY23 sees PAT in double-digit percentage growth on both a sequential and annual basis. The company’s board of directors (BOD) will also consider the first interim dividend for fiscal year 24 on Thursday.

On Tuesday, HCL Tech appeared as the top gainer in trading ahead of its earnings. The company’s shares closed 1.99% higher at ₹1,063.50 on the BSE.

On April 20, in addition to the fourth-quarter earnings announcement and full FY23 financial report, HCL Tech’s board members will also consider paying an interim dividend for FY23-24.

During the 3rd quarter of FY23, HCL Tech published a consolidated net profit of ₹4096 crore, up 19% year-on-year. This quarter, the major IT company beat estimates thanks to strong deals won. Revenue grew 19.5% yoy to ₹26.7 billion rupees. In constant currency terms, HCL Tech reported revenue growth of 5% QoQ and 13.1% YoY. The company’s attrition rate decreased significantly to 21.7% in the third quarter of fiscal year 23.

At that time, HCL Tech had lowered its revenue and margin guide bands. In FY23, revenue growth shows that at 13.5-14% in constant currency, and the EBIT margin is now at 18-18.5%.

What to expect in the fourth quarter?

In its preliminary report, ICICI Securities said: “We expect HCL to report CC revenue growth of 6.1% in FY24E and therefore start with 5-7% annual revenue growth guidance on CC terms for FY24E”. It will be 18-19% for fiscal 2020 after seeing 18.4% in fiscal 2020. For the fourth quarter of 2020, we expect HCL’s results to be subdue due to the weak climate in the products business, and CC platforms will be the weakest in our coverage universe in terms of QoQ growth. It is currently trading at a 19% discount to NIFTY IT, which is similar to the last 16 average. Our revised 12-month price target is Rs 1,122 (Rs 79 based on 16x FY26E EPS, discounted by 12% WACC). Means 5% upside potential. Repeat, wait.”

Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal, in his report, said: “We expect HCLT to post moderate growth due to the seasonal decline of HCL Software.” It expects margins to decline by 150 bps qoq due to the seasonal decline in HCL Software. However, the brokerage believes that the company’s IT services will remain strong in 4QFY23.

Motial expects HCL Tech to generate revenue of Rs 27.2 billion in Q4 FY2023, which will grow 20.3% year-on-year. EBITDA for the quarter is expect to be Rs 6,400 crore with a margin of 23.8% and added adjusted PAT at around ₹4,100 crores, up 19% yoy and 17.4% qoq.

Also, according to B&K, management maintained guidance for service revenues to grow in the range of 16% to 16.5% in CC terms. With that say, the company posted 17.8% growth in 9MFY23, so it needs around 2% QoQ growth in Q4 FY23 to meet guidance that’s likely to happen. In general shows, HCL revenue in CC terms in the range of 13.5% to 14% year-over-year. In particular, HCL has a cross-currency tailwind in the fourth quarter.

Additionally, B&K noted that for FY23, margins will now peak at 18.5%, and management also believes that with further investment, overall margins could increase to 18.5% from 18%. B&K believes that the company can achieve this margin in the fourth quarter and even reach 19%. In 9MFY23, the margin was 18.2%.

In addition, IDBI Capital expects expected HCL revenue growth (in CC) to decline to 1% in the quarter with a 15bp cross-currency tailwind, primarily due to the seasonal decline in product revenue. At the same time, the EBIT margin may drop 99 bps QoQ, mainly due to the slowdown in revenue growth.

Scarlet Samson